1. Matrix shape
The viewer maps four investor archetypes across five life stages and six policy branches, creating 120 cells. Each cell represents one practical position rather than a generic ideological take.
Australia's Budget 2026 Matrix
MethodologyCGT & Negative Gearing Matrix
A 120-cell scenario matrix for Australia's Budget 2026 CGT and negative gearing changes, organised by investor archetype, life stage, and policy branch.
Hard borders, compact cards, and scenario-first decision support for a narrow Budget 2026 subset.
Browse the matrix
2×2 archetype grid. Click a dot to open the full cell in the detail panel.
Project update log
Latest project changes and releases for this matrix.
Methodology
How these matrices are constructed, scored, and meant to be read.
2. Cell design
Every cell is written as an action under a specific scenario. It includes the recommended move, the reasoning, the key assumption, likely regret if the branch resolves differently, and a calculator anchor for deeper modelling.
3. Payoff scoring
Dot colour reflects expected payoff for that exact archetype × life stage × scenario combination, not just the scenario headline. The scale runs from strongly negative through neutral to strongly positive.
4. Policy basis
The matrices are grounded in the Budget 2026 CGT redesign, the residential negative-gearing changes, and the later grace-window correction for property buyers. Where the law or implementation remains uncertain, the cells hedge explicitly instead of pretending certainty.
5. Reader stance
The goal is not to predict the future perfectly. The goal is to show what looks robust, fragile, or timing-sensitive for a given investor profile if one policy branch becomes real.
6. Companion tools
Use this matrix for strategic orientation, then use the CGT calculator for explicit arithmetic and Factual AU for claim-level scrutiny of the surrounding public debate.